宏观报告全球宏观经济数据图册2010年5月份招商证券中国：目前的数据显示经济偏热但调控政策的作用将逐步显现不论从整体价格水平还是产出以及进出口相对增速等指标看，中国经济丁安华首席经济学家（）都呈现偏热的迹象，但领先指标和货币增速已显示经济的增速将走缓，85231896105dinganhua@cmschina.com.cn调控政策的效果将逐步显现。欧元区债务危机的冲击力还需要评估，会延缓中国政策“退出”的时间点，降低政策收缩的力度。谢亚轩博士美国：经济呈现持续复苏的态势（86-755）82943724xieyx@cmschina.com.cn美国经济持续复苏，但其领先指标已开始高位回落，库存调整和财政政策刺激的动能在下降，消费明显启动的时间可能要到三季度以后。信贷赵文利博士市场和房地产市场都有明显的积极信号，但是欧洲债务危机对金融市场（852）31896126的风险态度有显著的负面影响。美国的通胀压力较低，按照目前产能利wenlizhao@cmschina.com.cn用率的回升速度，到三季度末四季度初才具备加息的基础，但考虑欧洲李青债务危机的影响，联储全年不加息的概率在增加。（852）31896142欧洲：二次下滑的风险增加qingli@cmschina.com.cn欧元区经济今年第一季度仅实现同比增长0.5%，环比增长0.2%，尽管2010年5月30日去年同期基数很低。成员之间的经济复苏分化的趋势愈加明显。由于下半年补库存对经济的推动作用将明显减弱，如果净出口增长不足以填补投资和消费下滑的缺口，债务危机导致的信贷紧缩和财政整固将会给经济带来显著的下行风险。我们维持经济增速前高后低，全年增长0.5%的判断。请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分1of23MacroReportGlobalEconomyChartbookMay2010China:Economyisoverheatingbuttheeffectofmacro-controlmeasuresAnhuaDINGwillbecomeapparentgraduallyChiefEconomistEithertheoverallpricelevelortherelativegrowthrateofimportsandexports（852）31896105indicatessignsofoverheatinginChina'seconomy,howevertheleadingdinganhua@cmschina.com.cnindicatorsandmonetarygrowthhaveshownthateconomicgrowthwillslowdown,theeffectofmacro-controlpolicieswillbemoreclearlyshown.ChinaDr.DavidXIEmightpostponeitsstimuluspolicyexitandreducetheintensityofthetightening（86-755）82943724policyduetotherisinguncertaintyoftheimpactoftheeurozone'sdebtcrisis.xieyx@cmschina.com.cncrisis.Dr.CliffZHAOUnitedStates:Economyrecoverygainingcontinuedmomentumwenlizhao@cmschina.com.cn（852）31896126U.S.economycontinuestorecover,buttheleadingindicatorshavebeguntodropfromthehighlevel,theeffectofinventoryadjustmentandfiscalpolicyisQingLIfadingandaobviousriseinconsumptionmaynothappenuntilthethirdquarter.qingli@cmschina.com.cn（852）31896142Creditmarketsandrealestatemarketsdisplayaclearpositivesignal,buttheeurozone'sdebtcrisishasasignificantnegativeimpactontheriskattitudeofthemarket.U.S.haslowinflationpressure,accordingtothereboundvelocityofthecapacityutilization,weexpectnoratehikeuntiltheendof2010Q3ortheChinaMerchantsSecuritiesbeginningofthe2010Q4,butconsideringtheimpactofthedebtcrisisinEurope,30May2010chancesthatFederalReserveleaveskeyinterestrateunchangedthisyeararerising.Europe:Increasingriskofdouble-diprecessionIn2010Q1,despitethelowbaselastyear,theeurozoneeconomygrewbyjust0.5%and0.2%,comparedrespectivelyto2009Q1and2009Q4.Theeconomicrecoveryamongthemembersshowsthetrendoftheincreasingdifferentiation.Sincetherestockingeffectwillfadeinthelatterhalfof2010,ifthenetexportgrowthisnotabletofillthegapcausedbythedeclininginvestmentandconsumption,theeconomywillexperiencesignificantdownsideriskgiventhecredittightingandfinancialconsolidationledbythedebtcrisis.Wemaintainourviewthattheeconomicgrowthwillfollowadownwardslopingcurvein2010withanannualgrowthrateof0.5%.请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分2of23一、产出...................................................4OECD经济领先指标..........................................4工业产值增速..............................................5PMI（制造业、服务业）.....................................6二、就业...................................................7失业率....................................................7三、价格...................................................8CPI.......................................................8PPI.......................................................9通胀预期.................................................10四、进出口贸易............................................11进出口同比增速...........................................11进出口订单...............................................12五、投资..................................................13新屋开工.................................................13企业/商业信心............................................14六、消费..................................................15消费者信心...............................................15零售销售额...............................................16七、货币和信贷............................................17消费者信贷...............................................17八、利率和汇率............................................18央行基准利率.......................