研究报告|宏观专题报告定期报告全球宏观经济数据图册2010年8月10日2010年7月份主要预测%09A10E中国：宏观调控效果初现GDP9.19.8CPI-0.73.5PPI-5.45.5人民币汇率形成机制改革和宏观调控的效果逐渐显现：6月19日以来人民币兑社会消费品零售15.518.0美元持续走强，升值0.7%左右，同时进出口增速有所回落；从领先指标和工业工业增加值11.016.0增加值指标看，中国经济增速放缓，符合政策预期。6月70个大中城市房价16出口-16.010.9进口-11.215.7月来首次下降，新开工面积呈明显下降趋势，房地产新政初见成效。由于总需求固定资产投资30.522.8扩张放慢，6月CPI指数回落超预期，同时大宗商品价格下降拉低PPI增速，降M227.717.1人民币贷款余额31.718.8低了输入性通涨的可能，通涨压力逐步减轻。我们认为通胀将在三季度内见顶，1年期存款利率2.252.52考虑复杂的经济形势，全年不加息的可能性在上升。1年期贷款利率5.315.58人民币汇率6.836.62美国：全面复苏仍需时日最新数据（6月）美国经济持续复苏，不过考虑到其恢复缓慢的就业市场和消费增长，全面复苏仍工业13.7需时日。美国6月的失业率虽然下降至9.5%，但数据好转的主要原因是下降的城镇投资25.5劳动参与率，而不是新增的工作机会。美国的消费者情绪指数虽然有所回升，但零售额18.3CPI2.9仍旧低于均值。消费者在努力减少债务，消费信贷同比增速继续下探。基于欧债PPI6.4问题引发的主权债务危机和国内脆弱的经济复苏，美国或再启定量宽松。从目前资料来源：CEIC，招商证券的通胀压力和产能利用率状况看，联储全年不加息的概率很大。欧洲：徘徊在经济低谷丁安华7月欧洲制造业数据令人欣喜，PMI创3个月新高。不过PMI的增长主要得益于德国增强的制造业活跃度。其它欧元区国家的增长却乏善可陈。就经济基本面来首席经济学家dinganhua@cmschina.com.cn看，欧洲失业率仍然高企，投资依然低迷，库存周期开始见顶下行，信贷环境仍S1090209060287处于紧缩状态。本来7月欧盟银行压力测试可以作为工具和市场进行有效沟通，可惜其仓促得出的“近乎完美”的答卷难以令市场疑虑尽消。在欧盟实施行之有谢亚轩86-755-83295524效的系统性改革计划之前，欧洲经济可能只能在低谷徘徊。xieyx@cmschina.com.cnS1090210040004赵文利852-31896126wenlizhao@cmschina.com.cnS1090210060002研究助理：孙彬彬86-755-82943231sunbb@cmschina.com.cn敬请阅读末页的重要说明Report|MacroAnalysisMonthlyReleaseGlobalMacroChartbook10August2010July2010KeyData%09A10EChina:Macro-controlBegantoShowEffectsGDP9.19.8Currencyreformsandmacro-controlshoweffectsgradually.Yuanhasappreciatedby0.7%CPI-0.73.5PPI-5.45.5againstthedollarsinceJune19whileimportandexportgrowthslows.LeadingindicatorsRetailSales15.518.0andindustrialaddedvaluesuggestthatChina'seconomycoolswhichisinlinewithpolicyIndustrialAddedValue11.016.0expectations.Realestatecontrolpolicybegantoshoweffects.Housepricesin70citiesdropExport-16.010.9Import-11.215.7forthefirsttimein16monthsandnewconstructionareashowsacleardownwardtrend.AsFAI30.522.8theexpansionofaggregatedemandslowsdown,CPIdropsmorethanexpected.Meanwhile,M227.717.1thedecliningcommoditypricesdragdownthePPIgrowth,reducingthepossibilityofRMBLoans31.718.81yrDepositRate2.252.52importedinflation.Inflationarypressureiseasing.Webelievethatinflationwillpeakinthe1yrLendingRate5.315.58thirdquarter,giventhecomplexeconomicsituation,theprobabilityofaninterestratehikeRMBExchangeRate6.836.62in2010islower.LatestData(June)IndustrialAddedValue13.7UnitedStates:LongWaytoGoforFullRecoveryUrbanInvestment25.5U.S.economycontinuestorecover,butgiventheslowrecoveryofthejobmarketandRetailSales18.3CPI2.9consumptiongrowth,thereisalongwaytogoforfullrecovery.AlthoughtheU.S.PPI6.4unemploymentrateinJunefellto9.5%,buttheimprovementismainlyduetothedeclineinSource:CEIC,ChinaMerchantsSecuritieslaborforceparticipationrateratherthannewjobopportunities.U.S.consumersentimenthasrebounded,butisstilllowerthanhistoricalaverage.Sinceconsumersaretryinghardtorepaydebt,consumercreditgrowthYoYcontinuestoplumb.DuetotheEurozone'sdebtcrisisanddomesticfragileeconomicrecovery,U.S.mayrestart''quantitativeeasing''inthenearfuture.Inviewofthealleviatinginflationarypressureandthelow-standingcapacityutilization,FederalReserveisverylikelytoholdkeyinterestratethisyear.EdwardAnhuaDINGChiefEconomistEurope:EconomyHoversatTroughdinganhua@cmschina.com.cnEuropeanmanufacturingdataisstronginJuly.PMIhitsa3-monthhigh.However,PMI'sS1090209060287growthismainlyduetoincreasedmanufacturingactivitiesinGermany.Growthinothereuro-zonecountriesremainssluggish.Intermsofeconomicfundamentals,theEuropeanDr.DavidXIEunemploymentratestayshigh;investmentremainsatlowlevel;inventorycyclebeganto86-755-83295524peakdownwhiletighteningcreditisstillinplace.CEBSstresstestinJulycanactuallybexieyx@cmschina.com.cnS1090210040004usedasatooltocommunicateeffectivelytothemarket.Unfortunately,thealmost-perfectresultishardtobeconvincible.Untiltheimplementationofeffectivesystemicreformplan,Dr.CliffZHAOtheEuropeaneconomycannoteasilygetoutofthedownturn.852-31896126wenlizhao@cmschina.com.cnS1090210060002Assistant:Dr.BinbinSUN86-755-82943231sunbb@cmschina.com.cn敬请阅读末页的重要说明宏观经济正文目录一、产出................................................................4OECD经济领先指标...............