研究报告|宏观专题报告定期报告全球宏观经济数据图册2010年9月10日2010年8月份主要预测%09A10E中国：宏观调控效果明显GDP9.19.8CPI-0.73.5PPI-5.45.5人民币汇率形成机制改革和宏观调控的效果明显：8月份开始人民币兑美元开始社会消费品零售15.518.0走弱，贬值0.4%左右，表明人民币弹性增强，双向波动机制逐渐形成。进出口工业增加值11.016.0增速继续回落，受疲弱国内需求影响，进口增幅远低于预期，贸易顺差大幅上升。出口-16.010.9进口-11.215.7从领先指标和工业增加值指标看，中国经济增速有所放缓。7月份商品房销售面固定资产投资30.522.8积增速同比大幅下滑，房地产新政效果明显。7月份CPI同比略有上升，但仍处M227.717.1人民币贷款余额31.718.8于可控范围之内。考虑复杂的经济形势，我们认为通胀三季度内将见顶，下半年1年期存款利率2.252.52加息可能性不大。1年期贷款利率5.315.58人民币汇率6.836.62美国：经济的内生复苏动力不足最新数据（7月）财政刺激到期之后，房地产和就业市场的内在复苏动力不足，仍然是困扰美国经工业13.4济的主要因素。库存压力导致美国房地产市场仍有一定调整空间。8月份的失业城镇投资24.9率上升至，新增就业不足以阻止失业率继续上升。美国的消费者情绪指数零售额17.99.6%CPI3.3仍旧低于均值。消费信贷继续低迷。贸易方面，生活消费品进口创新高，不过工PPI4.8业原料出口额却有所下降，6月份贸易逆差上升至21个月高点。短期内，贸易资料来源：CEIC，招商证券仍将拖累美国经济增长。受经济放缓影响，美国通胀预期继续回落，联储加息时间可能会推迟至2011年下半年，并可能重新扩大量化宽松规模。欧洲：经济复苏风险犹存丁安华欧洲近期表现良好。8月份欧元区PMI指数显示制造业和服务业继续小幅扩张。首席经济学家dinganhua@cmschina.com.cn受欧元贬值影响，6月份欧盟贸易出现顺差。出口增长主要得益于德国出口的强S1090209060287劲。信贷方面，7月份央行向私人部门发放贷款增速，信贷紧缩有所缓解。值得注意的是欧洲失业率仍处于高位。此外，德国制造业出口受制于全球经济环境。谢亚轩86-755-83295524欧洲各国现在实行削减开支的政策势必会影响德国出口，削弱其对经济的拉动xieyx@cmschina.com.cn力。欧洲债务危机并没有得到妥善解决，市场对银行资本充足率和国债损失的担S1090210040004忧重燃。危机本身和根治危机所采取的措施可能带来的不确定因素将为欧洲经济赵文利复苏前景增添忧虑。852-31896126wenlizhao@cmschina.com.cnS1090210060002研究助理：孙彬彬86-755-82943231sunbb@cmschina.com.cn敬请阅读末页的重要说明Report|MacroAnalysisMonthlyReleaseGlobalMacroChartbook10September2010August2010KeyData%09A10EChina:Macro-controlShowsRemarkableEffectsGDP9.19.8CPI-0.73.5Currencyreformsandmacro-controlmeasureshaveshowneffects.YuanhasdepreciatedbyPPI-5.45.50.4%againstthedollarinAugust,whichshowsthatthetwo-wayfluctuationmechanismofRetailSales15.518.0RMBexchangerateisforminggradually.Duetotheweakdomesticdemand,importgrowthIndustrialAddedValue11.016.0Export-16.010.9ismuchlowerthanexpectedandthetradesurplusincreases.LeadingindicatorsandImport-11.215.7industrialaddedvaluesignalaslowdownofChina’seconomygrowth.RealestatecontrolFAI30.522.8policyshowsitseffectasnewhomesalesYoYreducedsignificantlyinJuly.CPIincreasesM227.717.1RMBLoans31.718.8slightlybutisstillundercontrol.Webelievethatinflationwillpeakinthethirdquarter.1yrDepositRate2.252.52Interestratehikesin2H2010areunlikely.1yrLendingRate5.315.58RMBExchangeRate6.836.62UnitedStates:InsufficientEndogenousRecoveryMomentumLatestData(July)Withexpirationoffiscalstimulus,theU.S.propertyandemploymentmarketarestilllackofIndustrialAddedValue13.4endogenousrecoverymomentum.Accumulatedinventoryweighsonthepropertymarket.UrbanInvestment24.9RetailSales17.9Unemploymentrateroseto9.6%inAugandnewlycreatedjobsarenotenoughtoholdtheCPI3.3unemploymentrate.ConsumerSentimentIndexisstilllowerthanthehistoricalaverage.PPI4.8Affectedbythehighunemploymentrateandslowingeconomicrecovery,consumercreditSource:CEIC,ChinaMerchantsSecuritiesdecreasesby3.5%YoY.IndustrialrawmaterialsexportdeclineswhileconsumergoodsimportincreasesinJune.Tradedeficitsgrowtothe21monthhigh.Intheshortterm,tradingwillstilldragdownU.S.economicgrowth.Inflationaryexpectationsarefallingduetoslowingrecovery.TheFederalReservemaypostponetheinterestratehiketo2H2011andexpandthescaleofQEpolicy.EdwardAnhuaDINGEurope:UncertaintiesStillAheadChiefEconomistEuropeperformswellrecently.PMIinAugustindicatesexpansioninboththedinganhua@cmschina.com.cnS1090209060287manufacturingandtheservicesectors，thoughataslowspeed.Duetotheweakeuro,weseetradesurplusagaininEuro-zonethisJune.ThestrongexportgrowthinGermanDr.DavidXIEmanufacturingdrivestheEuropeanexportgrowth.Credithasalsobeeneased.ECBdelivers86-755-83295524creditstotheprivatesectoratafasterspeedinJuly.However,weshouldnotethatthexieyx@cmschina.com.cnunemploymentrateremainsatahighlevel.Inaddition,theGermanmanufacturingexportsS1090210040004aresubjecttotheglobaleconomicenvironment.Thedeficit-cuttingpolicyimplementedbyEuropeancountriesisboundtoaffecttheGermanexport,weakeningitsdrivingforce.Dr.CliffZHAOEuropeandebtcrisishasnotbeenproperlysolved,andconcernsonbankingcapital852-31896126sufficiencyandpotentialsovereigndebtlossesflaredupagain.Uncertaintiescausedbybothwenlizhao@cmschina.com.cnS1090210060002thecrisisandremedialmeasuresbeingta