研究报告|宏观专题报告定期报告全球宏观经济数据图册2010年10月14日2010年9月份主要预测%09A10E中国：二季度以来的库存调整小周期可能已结束GDP9.19.8CPI-0.72.9PPI-5.45.5受房地产调控政策和海外经济复苏进程出现反复的双重负面影响，中国经济从二社会消费品零售15.518.0季度以来出现库存调整的小周期，工业增加值快速下滑。从最新的PMI等数据看，工业增加值11.016.0这一轮库存调整小周期可能已结束，经济从快速下滑中企稳。通胀压力仍在，虽出口-16.010.9进口-11.215.7然通胀可能在三季度见年内高点后开始回落，但通胀的威胁将持续到2011年。固定资产投资30.522.8到年底前，宏观政策的取向以保持稳定性和连续性为主，唯一可能变化的是扩大M227.717.1人民币贷款余额31.718.8人民币汇率浮动的区间。1年期存款利率2.252.52美国：中期选举在即定量宽松如箭在弦1年期贷款利率5.315.58人民币汇率6.836.62中期选举在即，美国就业和房地产市场仍然不见起色，领先指标继续下行，IMF最新数据（8月）亦大幅下调了今明两年美国经济增长预测。奥巴马政府面临越来越大的政治压工业13.9力，除了进一步逼迫人民币升值之外，国内政策的剩余空间已经不多。市场普遍城镇投资24.8期待联储于11月份重启量化宽松政策，美元贬值趋势短期内继续强化。受息差零售额18.4和投资回报率差异的影响，由此产生的过剩资金将继续涌向新兴市场，加剧外围CPI3.5PPI4.3的资产泡沫和通胀。资料来源：CEIC，招商证券欧洲：债务担忧重燃政策力保金融稳定月份欧盟边缘国家的坏消息接连不断，令主权国家债务担忧重燃：爱尔兰经济9在一季度摆脱衰退后，二季度再次陷入萎缩，下降1.2%；基于恶化的公共财政丁安华状况和缓慢的经济增长，西班牙评级被穆迪下调至Aa1；希腊爆出运用掉期隐瞒首席经济学家债务；此外，爱尔兰称最坏情况下可能需要500亿欧元拯救银行业，高于政府承dinganhua@cmschina.com.cnS1090209060287诺的330亿欧元，添加了政府削减赤字的难度。在市场对偿债能力担忧的影响下，爱尔兰、葡萄牙信用掉期一度升至纪录最高。为稳定金融市场，欧洲央行近期提谢亚轩高国债购买量，增加市场流动性供给；国家方面，希腊重组内阁，葡萄牙，西班86-755-83295524xieyx@cmschina.com.cn牙陆续采取紧缩财政政策以增强市场对国家偿债能力的信心。市场担忧一定程度S1090210040004上得到缓解。虽然欧洲债务问题短期内仍然可控，但值得注意的是，节衣缩食的赵文利削赤政策遇到的阻力日益增加，罢工潮席卷欧洲，经济下滑和巩固财政之间的矛852-31896126盾不断激化，成为未来欧洲经济复苏最大的隐忧。wenlizhao@cmschina.com.cnS1090210060002研究助理：孙彬彬86-755-82943231sunbb@cmschina.com.cn敬请阅读末页的重要说明Report|MacroAnalysisMonthlyReleaseGlobalMacroChartbook14October2010September2010KeyData%09A10EChina:Thesub-cycleofdestockingsince2Q2010mayhaveendedGDP9.19.8CPI-0.72.9UnderthecombinednegativeeffectsofrealestatecontrolpolicyandslowdowninoverseasPPI-5.45.5economicrecovery,Chineseeconomyhasundergoneasub-cycleofinventorydestockingRetailSales15.518.0since2Q2010.Theindustrialaddedvaluesloweddownquickly.AsshowninthelastestIndustrialAddedValue11.016.0Export-16.010.9data,suchasPMI,thisdestockingcyclemayhavealreadyendedandeconomyhasImport-11.215.7stabilizedfromthesharpdecline.AlthoughinflationmayreachthepeakandstarttodropinFAI30.522.83Q2010,thethreatofinflationpressurewillstillexistthrough2011.Beforetheyear-end,theM227.717.1RMBLoans31.718.8macroeconomicpolicydirectionwillfocusonstabilizationandcontinuity.Theonlypossible1yrDepositRate2.252.52changeistoexpandthefloatingbandofRMBexchangerate.1yrLendingRate5.315.58RMBExchangeRate6.836.62UnitedStates:QE-IIisreadyforlaunchasMid-termelectionisupcomingLatestData(August)Mid-termelectionisjustaroundthecorner,therealestatemarketandlabormarketisstillIndustrialAddedValue13.9weak,U.S.leadingindicatorscontinuetoslidedownward,IMFsignificantlylowertheUrbanInvestment24.8RetailSales18.4estimationofU.S.economicgrowthinthenexttwoyears.TheObamacabinetisgoingtoCPI3.5facemorepoliticalpressure.ThereisnotmuchspaceleftforimplementingdomesticpolicyPPI4.3exceptpushRenminbiappreciation.MarketwidelyexpectsFederalReservewillresorttoSource:CEIC,ChinaMerchantsSecuritiesquantitativeeasingpolicy,theshorttermtrendofU.Sdollardepreciationisstronglyexpected.DuetothespreadsininterestandROE,excessliquiditycontinuestofloodtoemergingmarketwhichisgoingtofuelinflationandassetbubblethere.Europe:Sovereigndebtconcernsresurface;policytosecurefinancialstabilityAseriesofbadnewsforEUperipherycountriescausedmoreconcernsonsovereigndebtinEdwardAnhuaDINGSeptember:afterIrelandgotoutofrecessionin1Q2010,itseconomydropped1.2%inChiefEconomist2Q2010andfellbacktocontraction;duetothedeteriorationinpublicfinancesanddinganhua@cmschina.com.cnS1090209060287slowdowningrowthrate,Spain’screditratingwasdowngradedtoAa1byMoody’s;Greecewasaccusedtouseswaptohidedebt;inaddition,Irelandsaidthatbankbailoutmayhit50Dr.DavidXIEbillioneurosintheworstcase,higherthanitspreviouscommitmentofatotalof33billion86-755-83295524euros,whichmadedeficitcutmoredifficult.IrishandPortugueseCDSspreadsoaredtoxieyx@cmschina.com.cnrecordhighduetotheconcernsoversolvency.Tostabilizethefinancialmarket,ECBS1090210040004recentlyincreasedpurchasesofgovernmentbondstoincreasetheliquiditysupply.Atthenationallevel,toimprovethemarketconfidence,GreececabinetreshuffledwhilePortugalDr.CliffZHAOandSpainadoptedtightfiscalpolicy.Marketconcernsea