MacroReportGlobalMacroChartbookJanuary2011China:TighteningMonetaryPolicytoBringInflationunderControlDr.DavidXIEChinaManufacturingPMIfallsto52.9%inJanuary,onepercentagepointlower（86-755）82943724comparedwithDecember2010.SeasonallyadjustedMoMPMIindexalsodrops,xieyx@cmschina.com.cnbutataslowerrate.January'sPMIindicatesthatcurrenteconomycontinuesslowingdownwithfluctuation.FromJanuary’sCPIandPPIdata,riskofDr.CliffZHAOstrongpriceriseinfood,commodity,housingandhealthcaresectorsare（852）31896126graduallyemerging,whichleadtouncertaintiesaboutinflationtrend.However,wenlizhao@cmschina.com.cnfromthefinancialandmonetarydatapublishedinJanuary,thetighteningpolicyhasbeenreflected.WeexpecttheoverallliquiditywillbeeffectivelymanagedQingLIthroughouttheyearunlessabnormalsupplyshockssustained.Therebyweseea（852）31896142highlikelihoodofadeclininginflationduringtheyear.qingli@cmschina.com.cnUnitedStates:SignsofStrongEconomicRecoveryTheUSunemploymentratefellto9%inJanuary,thelowestlevelsinceApril2009.Bank'swillingnesstolend,consumerconfidenceandcorporateinvestmentChinaMerchantsSecuritiesconfidencecontinuetoimprove.However,UShousingmarketisstillweak.ThenewhousingstartsremainatrecordlowinJanuaryandhomebuilderconfidence18February2011stayslowforfourconsecutivemonths,showingthattherecoveryofUShousingmarketstillhasalongwaytogo.DespitethemodestincreaseinUSinflationrate,inflationexpectationstartstogrowoverhistoricalaveragebecauseofloosemonetarypolicy.TheimportpricesandPPIincreasedathigherratecomparedtolastmonth,revealingthatinflationpressureisgrowing.ThereisnofundamentalchangesofFederalReserve'sexpectationonUSeconomy,sothattheQE2willendasscheduledandthepossibilityofinterestratehikeislowbeforeyearend.Europe:HigherLikelihoodofEarlierInterestRateHikeEurozonemanufacturingPMIsoarstorecordhighinninemonthsthisJanuary,indicatingacceleratedexpansionintheeconomy.GermanysawbyfarthestrongestexpansioninbusinessactivitywhileFrance’sgrowthratejumpedtoafour-monthhigh.Intheregion’speriphery,growthrateofIrelandrecordedthefastestsinceAugust2007andtheItalianeconomyalsoshowssignsofimprovement.However,inflationarypressuresarebuildingup.Althoughthelikelihoodofsecondroundeffectsoninflationremainssmall,eurozoneYoYinflationinJanuaryroseby2.4%,arecordhighin27-month.ECBtendstodotransparentandeffectivecommunicationwiththemarketaheadoftheratehike,thusasuddeninterestratehikeislesslikely.BasedonrecentspeechesmadebymembersofECB,weseelowlikelihoodofaneartermratehike.However,basedonanalysisoftheeconomictrendandinflationineurozone,weexpectthefirstinterestratehiketotakeplaceinthefourthquarterthisyear.请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分1of23宏观报告全球宏观经济图册2011年1月份招商证券中国：货币政策紧缩将有效控制通胀2011年1月份中国制造业PMI为52.9%，该指数比2010年12月份增速谢亚轩博士下降个百分点。季调后的指数环比同样下滑，但幅度略缓，表1PMI（86-755）82943724明当前经济继续震荡下行。从1月份的CPI和PPI数据来看，农产品价xieyx@cmschina.com.cn格，上游大宗商品，以及非食品价格中居住类价格和医疗保健价格上涨幅度可能超预期的风险已经逐步开始体现，这对于未来通胀走势的判断赵文利博士（852）31896126构成较大不确定性。但是从已公布的1月份金融货币数据来看，紧缩政wenlizhao@cmschina.com.cn策已经得到体现，预计全年整体流动性总闸门将得到有效管理，除非持续的异常供给冲击，则通胀在年内回落将是大概率事件。李青（852）31896142美国：经济复苏势头渐趋强劲qingli@cmschina.com.cn1月份美国失业率再次大幅下降至9%，为2009年4月以来最低水平；银行贷款投放意愿以及消费信心继续改善，企业投资信心逐步增强。不2011年2月18日过房地产市场起色仍然不大，1月份新屋开工总数处于历史低位，2月份住宅建筑商信心指数连续第四个月持稳在较低水平，表明房地产市场仍面临很多挑战。尽管美国通胀呈温和上涨趋势，受宽松货币政策影响，美国通胀预期近期有所抬头，已经超过历史均值。进口物价和PPI环比升幅加快，也暗示通胀上行压力的增加。美联储对于经济复苏的判断仍未出现实质性变化，预计QE2将如期结束，但年底之前加息的可能性不大。欧洲：央行或提前加息控制通胀1月份欧元区制造业PMI创9个月新高，显示欧元区经济加速扩张。德国商业活动增长速度创下有统计以来第二高值，法国增速达4个月高点。除德法外，1月份爱尔兰增速为2007年8月以来最快，意大利经济也较12月好转。通胀方面,根据欧盟统计局1月份欧元区通胀率同比上升2.4%，增幅创下27个月新高，不过由于能源价格上涨间接带来的第二轮通胀效应发生的可能性仍然较小。欧洲央行倾向于提前一个月左右和市场做较为透明有效的沟通，突如其来的加息的可能性较小。基于央行近期发表的讲话判断，欧洲央行短期内并不急于加息。不过根据通胀及欧元区各国经济复苏的趋势分析，我们认为欧洲央行于今年四季度提前加息的可能性极高。请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分2of23一、产出...................................................4OECD经济领先指标.........................................4工业产值增速..............................................5PMI（制造业、服务业）.....................................6二、就业...................................................7失业率....................................................7三、价格...................................................8CPI..