对深圳楼市的解读和房价走势的分析严世平2007.11?了解过去，洞察未来，是为了把握现在?人们往往依据眼前确定性的因素按惯性思维推测未来，这种思维的局限性导致了我们大多数人投资决策的失败?掌握楼市运行的基本规律，看清决定未来价格的供需基本面的变动趋势，才能不被眼前的迷雾所遮蔽，方能思人所不能思，行人所不能行20年来深圳楼市供求关系的变化蛇口近年不同档次物业价格走势120000110000110000100000100000900008000070000600005000050000380003800040000300002000025000150002200020000200009500110001000070009500062002002-2004200520062007.72007.12海月/花园城（普通住宅）半山兰溪谷（城市豪宅）半山海景别墅(独栋别墅）　深圳历年GDP及商品住宅市场供需变动图1200800070001000600080050006004000300040020002001000001983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007年销量2621.271.945.373.368.750.856.397.196141183209261.1336.7372.4492.5556.8593.7724.4811.9802.6901.1705.8456.1年供给96.45211.2241.3248.1305.6541.5635.9744.2732.7805.41105886.1967.5849.7784.8637.5GDP13.1223.4139.0241.6455.986.98115.7171.7236.7317.3453.1634.7842.5104812971535180421872482297035864282495156846765深圳历年住宅市场供需状况100075050025001983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007销售面积2621.271.945.373.368.750.856.397.196141183209261.1336.7372.4492.5556.8593.7724.4811.9802.6901.1705.8456.1预售面积96.45211.2241.3248.1305.6349.5498.6538.8577.9647.1961.4716.9806.5711.6694.6567.8空置面积191.9137.3205.4154.8158.3143.4169.2161138.290.2469.63181.32006年-2008年深圳住宅月度供求比140600%120500%100400%80300%60200%4020100%00%06.06.06.06.06.06.06.06.06.06.06.06.07.07.07.07.07.07.07.07.07.07.07.07.08.08.08.123456789101112123456789101112123住宅预售面积(万m2)293632784652415466717084448.83.96658287050373737126332035销售面积(万m2)372847395126263743567869882940494952452230161422206.633供求比78%12769%20789%20115614415512889%12150%28%10%14611855%157227127237257563162299106深圳整体均价走势图2400019000140009000400006.06.06.06.06.06.06.06.06.06.06.06.07.07.07.07.07.07.07.07.07.07.07.07.08.08.08.123456789101112123456789101112123全市(元/平米)7382778778768854891194489729102293319418965410001064112011271133142614601369193016451468158916331474144212452000010006-08年深圳新房成交价格与成交量变化图9017500807015000601250050401000030207500105000006.106.106.107.107.107.106.106.206.306.406.506.606.706.806.907.107.207.307.407.507.607.707.807.908.108.208.3012012全市(元/平米)738277877876885489119448972910229331941896541000106411201127113314261460136919301645146815891633147414421245销售面积(万m2)3728.446.538.551.425.82637.242.755.578.469.387.829.139.949.449.351.944.62229.515.814.422.420.16.5832.52006-2008年深圳市销售套数走势图10000900080007000600050004000300020001000006.106.106.107.107.107.108.008.008.006.106.206.306.406.506.606.706.806.907.107.207.307.407.507.607.707.807.9012012123全市42833130473537974796256924793887472960598661708785752666406546564525521844152031343417211572235721887113352罗湖619638771611369181250158595290296334434188320150546345249195127116501609141159福田891363446306124884285574055138507009243155714162242566928727113328817520944195南山43162197953893048843668050910301255128613883748903333093755564102288767175347181163盐田608217211830161691522903252381941562882931641453448369206534149791129宝安90653712801069168985973257113212471384631563407358867183714492129164855311732122045825441261524龙岗1376889108711551680792564176116091430163114172267843113417561852207914105171015110892911169183081282深圳市二手房07年各月成交套数走势图160001400012000100008000600040002000007.007.007.007.007.007.007.007.007.007.107.107.108.108.208.3123456789012深圳市5545514171831242111810122471354577986054331836513352301714643211深圳市二手房07年各月成交价格走势图(元/m2)14000130001200011000100009000800007.0107.0207.0307.0407.0507.0607.0707.0807.0907.1007.1107.1208.108.208.3深圳市899691809759106001132912169127701292112624132491302312816127311266512419价格机制决定的深圳房价和成交量的变动轨迹价格需求变化S７随城市经济发展，消费者收入水平逐步提高，需求曲线步步右移，且CS６需求的价格弹性逐步变大D●P7--20000供给变化P8B●A房地产市场发育之初，土地供应十SP6--15000５分充裕，随需求的增加，表现出无限量供给的特征；但到后期，由于城市空间的刚性约束，楼市供给逐S4S3S0S2年减少，且供给弹性也越来越小P5—9000D7P1—6000D4D5D6D0D2D3销量Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5Q7Q62008年深圳楼市调控趋势近期深圳楼市价格将出现结构性分化A：抑制需求---增加供给从供需角度来看，关内住宅因为受供给的刚性约束，即B：扩大需求---增加供给使打压需求，价格也没有走低的可能；而豪宅因为供需C：扩大需求---减少供给失衡度更高，价格只能步步上扬。关外住宅则会因阶段D：抑制需求---减少供给性的供应过量，局部地域会出现价格下跌现象。深圳楼市的结构分化——关内关外市场分化豪宅普宅市场分化市场阶段土地供应住房需求市场结构D12004年S1买方市场前D22005年后S2关内卖方市场S`2