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中国房地产策略研究报告

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OctoberOctober29,29,20092009China:PortfolioStrategyChina:PortfolioStrategyThemesfor2010:FollowthebigtrendsThematicinvestingmakessenseThomasDeng,CFATherisk/rewardofengagingintheme-basedinvestingseemsfavorablein+852-2978-1062|thomas.deng@gs.com2010asthegovernmentisremoldingChina’sgrowthorientationandGoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.soundinvestmentopportunitiesusuallyemergeduringaparadigmshift.KingerLau,CFA+852-2978-1224|kinger.lau@gs.comBigtrends:ReformsandintegrationGoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.WeseethemostcompellingthemescenteringonwhatwebelieveareKennethKok,CFAtwoseculartrendsinChina:(1)Deepeningreformsand(2)integration.+852-2978-0960|kenneth.kok@gs.comDeepeningreforms(Structural,financial,andfiscalsupport):GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.-Healthcarereform:ThegovernmentwillspendRmb850bninthenext3yearsandderegulationcouldcreatelong-terminvestmentopportunities.SunilKoul-Inlandvs.coastal:AmoretargetedwaytotradeChina’srobust(212)934-6971|sunil.koul@gs.comdomesticdemandagainstananemicG3growthrecovery.GoldmanSachsIndiaSPL-Chineseautos:Affordabilityhasincreasedsignificantly,yetautopenetrationinChinaremainsverylowinaglobalcontext.-A-shareissuance–US$40bnofnewequitycouldhitthemarketin2010(1.5%ofmarketcap).Brokersarelikelytobethefirsttobenefit.-A-sharelisting:Offshore-listedstockscouldlistdomesticallyin1Q10andtheytendtoperformwellaheadoftheirA-sharelistingdates.Integration:-ShanghaiWorldExpo:Mayattract70mnvisitorstothecityandtheinfrastructureworkshouldbodewellforfuturegrowth.-Cross-straitdevelopment:Closertiesacrossthestraitmaybenefitallconcerned.BuyChineseITandFujian-basedfirms.Ourrecommendedthemesfor2010PolicyRebalance+sustainGROWTHobjectivesDeepeningFurtherintegrationreformsFinancialStructuralFiscalWTOGEMHealthcare+Inlandvs.educationcoastalBRICSInt'lBondsboard2008BeijingUnleashingdomesticconsumptionOlympicsRatesA-sharebrokersRed-chipHealthcareChineseWorldGoWestCrossstraitlistingsreformautosExpoSource:GSGlobalECSResearch.TheGoldmanSachsGroup,Inc.doesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegACcertification,seetheendofthetext.OtherimportantdisclosuresfollowtheRegACcertification,orgotowww.gs.com/research/hedge.html.Analystsemployedbynon-USaffiliatesarenotregistered/qualifiedasresearchanalystswithFINRAintheU.S.ThisreportisintendedfordistributiontoGSinstitutionalclientsonly.TheGoldmanSachsGroup,Inc.GoldmanSachsGlobalEconomics,CommoditiesandStrategyResearchGoldmanSachsGlobalEconomics,CommoditiesandStrategyResearch1October29,2009China:PortfolioStrategyThemesfor2010:FollowthebigtrendsMarketsetup:FavorableforthematicinvestingWebelieveinvestmentstrategiesrevolvingaroundthematicinvestingandproactivesectorstrategies,asopposedtoanoutrightmarketbeta,couldrewardinvestorswellin2010.Ourargumentsarebackedupbythefollowingshiftinpolicysetupandmarketdynamics:?Chinaneedstoboostdomesticconsumptiontosustaingrowth,asthegrowthmomentumfromtradeandinvestmentislikelytomoderateonananemicG3recoveryandahigh-baseeffect,respectively.Weexpectgovernmentpoliciestobeincreasinglyskewedtowardsthepromotionofdomesticconsumptionandattractivelong-terminvestmentopportunitiesusuallyariseduringaparadigmshift,justliketheydidinChina’s11thfive-yearplanperiod(2006-2010).?Asignificantportionofmarketreturnsin2009havesofarbeenpropelledbyvaluationnormalizationoffalowbase(Exhibit1).Althoughwearguethatcurrentmarketvaluationsarelargelyfair(14.8Xversusourtargetmultipleof15XforHshares),webelievethatfundamentals(EPSgrowth)will,onceagain,becometheprimaryreturnsdriverin2010.?Rollingreturnsdispersionhasnormalizedbutisnotatstretchedlevels,especiallyintheA-sharemarket.Webelieveactivesectormanagementapproachesmakesense(Exhibit2).Aggregatingourtop-downanalysis,sectordynamics,andoursectoranalysts’fundamentalviews,weseetwoseculartrends–Deepeningreformsandintegration–towhichseveralcompellinginvestmentthemesa

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中国房地产,策略研究,营销策略

内容摘要：China needs to boost domestic consumption to sustain growth, as the growthmomentum from trade and investment is likely to moderate on an anemic G3 recoveryandahigh-base effect, respectively. Weexpectgovernmentpoliciesto beincreasinglyskewedtowardsthepromotionofdomesticconsumption and attractive long-terminvestment opportunities usually arise during a paradigm shift, just like they did inChina’s 11th five-year plan period (

B	北京房地产	D	东莞房地产		海南房地产		南宁房地产		沈阳房地产
C	成都房地产		大连房地产		合肥房地产	Q	青岛房地产	T	天津房地产
	重庆房地产	F	福州房地产	J	济南房地产	S	上海房地产	W	武汉房地产
	长沙房地产	G	广州房地产	N	南京房地产		深圳房地产		无锡房地产
	长春房地产		贵阳房地产		南昌房地产		苏州房地产	X	西安房地产
	常州房地产	H	杭州房地产		宁波房地产		石家庄房地产	Z	郑州房地产